Organic traffic estimator by Google ranking position

How to estimate organic traffic by position

Before investing in SEO, it helps to know how much traffic a position really earns. CTR (click-through rate) drops fast as you go down the page: the first Google result gets more than twice the clicks of the second, and the second page gets very little.

This tool multiplies each keyword's monthly search volume by the CTR of the position where you appear and compares it with a scenario in which you move up the ranking. It is an estimate to prioritize and justify effort, not an exact forecast.

1. List the keywords. Write one per line in the format keyword; volume; current position. Monthly volume and position come from an SEO tool or Search Console. You can paste from a spreadsheet.
2. Choose the scenario. Enter the position you want to reach (for example, 1) or how many positions you plan to climb. Keywords already better than the scenario do not get worse.
3. Read the table. For each keyword you see estimated clicks today, in the scenario and the gain. The total shows the impact of the SEO campaign as a whole.
4. Use it as a priority order. Give more attention to keywords with the largest estimated gain. Compare the gain with the cost of producing content and links to get there.

Everything is calculated here, in your browser. Nothing you type is sent to any server and we use no third-party cookies.

The CTR curve and the math

Estimated clicks = monthly search volume × CTR of the position. Calculations use whole numbers, and page 2 onward counts as zero because the curve covers only the first page.

Curve source: the First Page Sage report "Google Click-Through Rates (CTR) by Ranking Position" (https://www.firstpagesage.com/reports/google-click-through-rates-ctrs-by-ranking-position/), September 22, 2026 edition, checked on October 18, 2026. We use the blended CTR column, which the report recommends for traffic forecasting: 7.1% at position 1, 3.0% at 2, 1.7% at 3, 1.1% at 4, 0.7% at 5, 0.6% at 6, 0.4% at 7, 0.3% at 8 and 0.2% at positions 9 and 10. All ten positions are published values, with no interpolation. The base is 1,184 domains and 3.67 billion Google impressions (Mar to Aug 2026), desktop and mobile together, in the US. This blended CTR already includes searches with an AI summary and is the default scenario. The "CTR curve" control switches to the "Without an AI answer" scenario, which covers only searches where Google shows no AI summary: 22.6% at position 1, 10.2% at 2, 5.8% at 3, 3.7% at 4, 2.5% at 5, 1.8% at 6, 1.3% at 7, 0.9% at 8, 0.7% at 9 and 0.5% at 10. Use the blended curve to forecast traffic across all searches today and the no-AI curve for keywords whose results page has no AI summary.

Real CTR varies a lot with search intent, brand, device and the features on the results page, such as ads, answer boxes and AI summaries. Brand searches have much higher CTR, and searches with many features have lower.

• Clicksmonthly volume × CTR of the position
• Position 17.1% (First Page Sage, 2026)
• Positions 2 and 33.0% and 1.7% (First Page Sage, 2026)
• Positions 4 to 91.1%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.2% (First Page Sage, 2026)
• Position 100.2% (First Page Sage, 2026)
• Without an AI answer (alternative scenario)22.6%, 10.2%, 5.8%, 3.7%, 2.5%, 1.8%, 1.3%, 0.9%, 0.7% and 0.5% at positions 1 to 10 (First Page Sage, 2026)
• Position 11 or worse0% (outside the curve)

Examples